Signal watch: August 2026

Most Australians don't trust news on social media. They're getting it there anyway.

Social media has overtaken news websites as the main way Australians reach the news. Nearly half of 18 to 24 year olds get it from TikTok.¹

Half of Australians say they don't trust news on social media. They're getting it there anyway.²

Researchers ran the test that explains why. They compared a feed ranked by what gets clicks against one that just showed posts in the order they were written. The ranked feed served up far more anger, and people liked it less.³ It isn't picking what you want. It's picking what you'll react to.

Marketer Gary Vaynerchuk says we've left social media and moved into interest media. Your posts no longer go to the people who follow you. They go to whoever the platform thinks will react.⁴ He sells social media services, so he has a reason to say it, and the platforms are proving him right anyway.

If you've spent ten years building a following, you don't own it any more. And the place where customers now form their view of you pays best when someone is angry.

Type: Emerging | Strength: Strong | Rationale: primary survey data from the twelfth annual Australian report, with the mechanism supported by a controlled experiment, though that experiment ran on X and predates this year's Australian figures.

The label said Australia. The lab said China.

A lab tested more than 900 samples of tomato paste from 39 brands. More than 80% of the Leggo's samples carried the chemical fingerprint of tomatoes grown in China. About half the products containing Chinese tomatoes traced back to Xinjiang, where forced Uyghur labour is known to be used.¹¹

Leggo's owner Simplot rejected the results. It says its paperwork traces the tomatoes to Australian farms. It also says it hasn't done any testing.

Testing food to find where it really came from isn't new. A study of 672 seafood products sold here found 11.8% didn't match their labels.¹² What's new is that it now costs something to be wrong.

On 16 July the government said it will make it a crime for companies turning over more than $100 million to fail to prevent modern slavery in their supply chains.¹³ A week later the United States put a 12.5% tariff on Australian goods for failing to stop forced-labour imports. Seventeen other countries got 10% instead, because they already have an import ban or have promised one.¹⁴

Exemptions cover about 70% of Australian exports, so the direct cost is smaller than the number looks.¹⁵

For thirty years, proving your supply chain meant telling someone what you did. Now it means showing them it worked. A Tasmanian maker pulled three products off his shelves because he couldn't find out what was in his own jars.

Type: Emerging | Strength: Strong | Rationale: lab testing at scale, a company denial on the record, a new criminal offence and a trade penalty inside three weeks, from sources that back each other up rather than repeat each other.

Victoria's new premier said he wouldn't challenge. Six weeks later he did.

In June, Ben Carroll stood beside Jacinta Allan and ruled out challenging her for the Victorian leadership. Asked whether he'd ask her to step aside, he said no.¹⁹

On 27 July he announced he was nominating. Allan resigned the next morning.

He'd done it before. When Daniel Andrews quit in 2023, Carroll nominated against Allan, withdrew, said he supported her, and took the deputy's job.²⁰

The morning itself matched. About 70 MPs voted three times, twice by show of hands, because they couldn't get the count right. Someone voted informally as a joke.²¹

None of this is unusual. That's the problem.

Outside the room, One Nation is polling around 27% in Victoria, a state where it holds a single upper house seat. In South Australia in March it outpolled the Liberals. Antony Green expects the vote for everyone other than Labor and the Coalition to pass 40% in November, and to beat both.²²

Voters never saw inside that room, but they've worked out what happens in there. A party asking Victorians for four years spent June making a promise it couldn't hold for six weeks.

Carroll's first act as premier was to call the royal commission into construction corruption that the government he was deputy of had refused. Within days, Allan's Suburban Rail Loop was in doubt, though he says no contracts will be cancelled.

If your plans rest on a government promise, they can change in a room you're not in.

Type: Emerging | Strength: Strong | Rationale: Carroll's June position and July nomination are both on the record, and the polling comes from long-running series rather than a single survey.

What we're monitoring

National Cabinet looks at the new AI standards this month, which will show whether the states hold together on data centre rules or split the way they did on energy. The ACCC says it's considering the country-of-origin claims, and consultation opens on the modern slavery offence. Between them, the next few months decide whether "reasonable steps" means paperwork or testing.

Two things from July are still open. The eSafety Commissioner has new power to demand internal documents from the platforms under investigation, and we haven't seen it used. The ninth Capacity Investment Scheme tender closed for bids on 20 July with results due in November, which is the real test of whether new renewable projects are picking up after last year's slump.

The fuel excise discount lapsed at the start of August. Watch the bowser, then watch the next inflation figure, because some of June's relief was borrowed.